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How to use this simulator
This tool compares a fixed business-as-usual (BAU) path with the scenario you create. It is designed to help you examine trade-offs, not predict exact future costs.
- Choose the end year. Use 2035 for a nearer-term view or keep the 2050 default to see longer-term effects.
- Test an action mix. Select a preset or move the four sliders. Higher effort generally increases spending sooner and reduces losses later.
- Compare the lines. Look at the fixed BAU path, loss remaining after action, added intervention spending, and their combined scenario cost.
Important: Values are evidence-informed model outputs in A$ billions. They are not budgets, promises or precise forecasts.
Cost versus time
Annual Bushfire Cost to 2050
How to read this graph: the dashed BAU line is the estimated cost without new action. The dotted residual-loss line shows damage remaining after your actions. The shaded band is the added intervention spend, and the solid total line combines that spend with residual loss.
Why the two orange lines differ
Residual loss after action is the bushfire damage that still occurs after the selected actions reduce the business-as-usual loss. Total scenario cost adds the annual cost of those actions to the remaining damage: residual loss + intervention spending. The shaded gap between the orange lines is that intervention spending.
Compare the solid total-scenario line with the dashed BAU line to judge the complete cost trade-off. In early years, action can cost more than the losses it prevents; later, the scenario costs less than BAU when avoided damage exceeds intervention spending.
View the annual values shown in this graph
The table provides the same information as the graph for reading, comparison or assistive technology.
Historical Baseline 2016-2025
Visible assumptions, visible uncertainty, editable later via JSON.
Model Notes
Short, plain-English guidance for non-technical users.