Bega Valley Community Resilience — Trade-off Simulation

Evidence boundary: this is a deliberation prototype, not a Bega Valley survey result, forecast, council proposal or vote. It uses the 2024 council survey and published engagement to choose discussion topics. The 2026 council survey had closed, but results were not published when this draft was made. Public online comments and campaigns are signals only—not representative community sentiment.

What the available evidence says—and does not say

Formal evidence identifies recurring pressures. Current digital discussion helps keep the issue set relevant, but cannot tell us how common each view is.

Roads were the leading council priority

28%

Selected roads as the single highest priority in the 2024 random-sample Community Satisfaction Survey (n=400).

Formal survey

Affordable housing followed

20%

Selected affordable housing as the single highest priority. This percentage is not a recommended spending share.

Formal survey

Trust and communication matter

28% / 27%

Management/transparency and better communication/engagement/accessibility led suggested effectiveness improvements.

Formal survey

Fresh 2026 results are not available

Unknown

The July–August 2026 satisfaction survey closed shortly before this draft. Its results must be added when published.

Evidence gap

Distribute 100 effort points

These points are not dollars. They represent attention, political effort, planning capacity and coordinated action. Your total must equal exactly 100.

Competing action areas

Use a discussion starter or build your own allocation. Each slider can receive 0–40 points.

All 100 points start allocated. To give more points to one area, first move another slider down to free the same number of points.

See the system, not six separate lists

Each line shows that an action may help one of the five overall goals. A thicker, darker line means you allocated more points to that action and this demo assumes a stronger connection. It does not prove the effect will occur.

more points plus a stronger assumed connection Left: competing actions Right: what the overall mix is designed to support Hover over a line to see its assumed connection; the lines are not buttons. See all assumed connections in the table below

Example Only - Citizens' Response

This demonstration uses eight invented responses. It shows what a future community summary could look like; it is not Bega Valley evidence and cannot accept real responses.

Loading eight synthetic demonstration responses.

Action	Mean points	Spread (SD)	Top-three count
Loading synthetic demonstration data.

Mean and spread are calculated directly from the eight invented allocations. “Top-three count” shows how many of the eight placed an action among their three highest allocations. No demographic weighting or claim of community support is applied.

Feedback needs more than one government inbox

The roles overlap. A useful briefing shows what each representative can decide, fund, advocate for or coordinate—and where responsibility is shared.

Bega Valley Shire Council

Local roads, drainage, facilities and some bridges
Land-use planning and development processes
Local water, sewer, waste and community infrastructure
Local emergency planning, engagement and advocacy

NSW Member for Bega

Hospitals, mental health and much of the health workforce
State roads, emergency services and disaster management
Housing, planning settings, social services and utilities policy
Escalating local evidence into NSW Parliament and agencies

Australian Member for Eden-Monaro

Primary-care, aged-care and national housing funding
Telecommunications, NBN and national infrastructure programs
Disaster resilience funding, data and intergovernmental coordination
Escalating regional evidence into Parliament and federal programs

Inspect the evidence, model and limits

A trustworthy simulation makes it easy to disagree with its assumptions and update them.

Evidence used to choose the six issues

BVSC Community Satisfaction Survey 2024 — formal random sample plus separate opt-in results.
Community Strategic Plan 2042, 2025 revision — published engagement synthesis.
2026 draft plans and budget consultation — indicative public digital questions.
2026 clinical services consultation — active health planning, no results inferred.
Merimbula CBD consultation and Cuttagee Bridge campaign — concrete current trade-offs, not representative samples.
Rick Molony's 2020 Royal Commission submission — lived evidence about Bega Valley evacuations, information, communications, power and road dependencies.

How the directional indicators are calculated

In plain English: the demo first looks at how many points you gave each action. The first points make a bigger difference to the display than later points, so concentrating 40 points in one area does not make it twice as influential as 20. The table then states how strongly this demo assumes each action supports each of the five overall goals. The coloured scores combine those two things. They are discussion prompts—not predictions that services or resilience will improve.

Each action's points receive a diminishing-returns transform: min(1, sqrt(points / 25)). Each indicator is the weighted average of the six transformed values multiplied by 100.

What a weight means: a larger number means this demo assumes a stronger connection. For example, 0.35 is treated as stronger than 0.10. It does not mean a 35% improvement in the real world. The weights in each goal column add to 1.00 so the model can divide that goal across the six actions.

Action	Pressure relief	Access	Readiness	Long-term	Community voice

These weights are starting assumptions for discussion, not survey findings. Changing a weight changes the coloured bars and map lines only. It does not change what people said, prove that one action causes an outcome, or predict what a policy will achieve.

Known limitations and stop conditions

The scores show how this demonstration responds to your choices. They do not predict what will happen in Bega Valley.
The 100 effort points are a conversation device. They are not money, votes, measured benefits or proof that an action can be delivered.
The published results of council's 2026 survey were not available when this demonstration was prepared, so they are not represented.
Online comments and campaigns show that an issue is being discussed, but they cannot tell us how many residents agree or whether the wider community shares that view.
The six action areas simplify a connected system and may leave out important community priorities. The “missing issue” question is intended to expose those gaps.
This is a browser demonstration only. It has no secure database, identity checks, moderation, long-term comparison or automatic submission to representatives.
Stop and seek review if a response contains personal information, invented responses are no longer clearly labelled, a score is described as a fact or prediction, or anyone proposes publishing or sending results without separate approval.

Printed evidence boundary: concept artefact only; not a survey, forecast, vote or submitted response.